When will Hungarians pay 450 Forints for 1 Euro?
According to financial analysts, we can likely pay 450 forints for a euro as early as December this year. But what is the reason behind it? And which is the best and worst-case scenario for the upcoming period?
The Hungarian Forint significantly weakened against the major currencies in the interbank foreign exchange market on Monday. The euro was quoted at 402.46 forints at 6 p.m. after 400.23 forints in the early morning, the dollar was quoted at 385.70 forints from 383.85 forints while the Swiss franc at 401.54 forints from 400.11 forints.&
Since the beginning of the year, the forint has weakened by 9.1 percent against the euro, 18.9 percent against the dollar and 12.9 percent against the Swiss franc – reported by the Hungarian news portal Napi.hu.
In the last few months, the previously predicted worst-case scenario has become reality regarding the Hungarian currency. Still, the current situation is only the beginning of the slippery slope. We have just entered an economic recession, partly due to the war. Therefore, global inflation, interest rate hikes and the economic crisis are still ahead of us, and the forint is a very vulnerable currency compared to others, which does not bode well for the upcoming period either.
According to financial analysts, we can pay 450 forints for a euro as early as December this year.
In a year, the Hungarian currency has weakened by nearly 50 forints against the euro. If we look at the neighbouring Poland’s currency, we can only talk about a 12-forint depreciation. According to Zoltán Török, a financial analyst, the underperformance of the Hungarian Forint against other currencies is due to government debt. The Hungarian government’s debt is around 80 percent of the national GDP, while in the neighbouring countries it is much lower. In the Czech Republic, for example, it is at around 40-50 percent. Another reason is the energy crisis, which could particularly affect Hungary because of its close dependence on Russian energy.
As the Hungarian new portal rtl reports, the weakening of the forint has also made foreign travel and holidays much more difficult. People cannot calculate in advance when it is worth exchanging currency due to the 5 to 10 forint shift against the euro. The weakening of the forint is also bad for interest rate hikes and repayments. According to the expert, debtors who have taken out fixed-rate loans are safe. Although the interest rate freeze may also benefit many other stakeholders at the moment, if this will be terminated by the government, a drastic rise in repayments can be expected.
According to the financial expert, the best scenario for Hungary would be if the government could reach a deal with the European Commission. In this case, the rule of law supply could be removed, EU resources could be freed up and the forint could recover and not depreciate so drastically.
Read alsoReason why the Hungarian forint keeps weakening
Source: napi.hu, rtl.hu